Instrument Record

Category · sun

The 11-year pulse, on the same desk as air.

The observational core is SILSO’s monthly sunspot number since 1749. Overlay it on UAH: the 11-year cycle is obvious; the secular temperature trend is not the cycle.

Sunspot number since 1749

WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium

Sunspots against UAH troposphere

SILSO (right) · UAH TLT (left). Maunder-scale history is on the panel above.

Cycle-to-cycle TSI variation is about 0.1%. That is a real forcing, and it is small next to the CO₂ forcing since 1750 in standard inventories. Showing both on one figure is more honest than either a solar-only gallery or a solar-free dashboard.

Companion desks

Same project, other questions.

They are not extra series on these charts — they are the arguments about ice versus stomata, the 20th-century blade, the ¹³C fingerprint, the 1988 polar forecasts, and what CERES actually attributes the last 26 years to.

Stomata vs Ice

Plant leaves keep a growing-season count of pores. Antarctic ice keeps bubbles of old air. Ice-core CO₂ is heavily smoothed; stomatal series still carry century-scale swings that only meet the ice at the instrumental splice.

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Hockey Stick Lab

Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1998 made a shaft-and-blade by overweighting the Sheep Mountain bristlecone (CA534) by as much as 390×. Strip that weight and the 1910–1938 climb is already there. Drag the weight yourself against HadCRUT5.

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δ¹³C Ledger

The “fossil isotopic signature” is not a raw intercept. Station Keeling plots sit near −13‰; the textbook −28‰ is an isoflux term after gravity, diffusion, blank and scale corrections. The ledger separates observation from the model step.

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Arctic and Antarctic vs the 1988 estimates

1988-era scenarios warmed both poles under well-mixed greenhouse gas. The split is not that: Arctic air rose; Antarctic did not. Sea-level rise since 1900 is expansion-scale, not a melt pulse matching those polar-ice forecasts.

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NZ Atlas

Nikolov & Zeller and Goessling, Rackow & Jung land on the same CERES fact: the last ~26 years of warming track absorbed sunlight from a falling planetary albedo. They split on story; the satellite number they both use is albedo, not CO₂ forcing.

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